The NCA recently published their latest Strategic Threat Assessment (STA) and Graeme Biggar, their Director General, confirmed that serious and organised crime (SOC) remains a high harm threat, more so than any other national security threat.

Biggar shared his expert view that the key to tackling SOC threats is to really understand them, and the STA helps practitioners to do just this.

Headlines of STA for Fraud?

So, what are the key takeaways from the 2023 STA. Crime figures for England and Wales (E&W) are down overall, but the harm of serious and organised crime remains high.

When considering the drivers for this, Biggar explains that organised crime is increasingly international (City of London Police recently suggested 70% of fraud now has an international element), criminals are more networked and joined up, and they are technologically adept.

To build on the drivers, it is clear that the societal shift to being online plays a part in the continued prevalence of fraud. So much of our lives from work, banking to social lives is managed online.

In terms of volume the STA identifies that fraud volumes are down overall in comparison to 2022, and for fraud the NCA credits the increased implementation of industry counter measures for this decline. Fraud, which the NCA consider through the lens of against individuals and against businesses, remains the most reported crime type in E&W, despite the noted decline.

• 11% of fraud victims were victimised more than once in year ending 2023
• 3.1 million fraud incidents reported during 2023
• 37% of all crime in England and Wales is fraud related

What do the figures tell us?

For England and Wales, there continues to be a high prevalence of fraud, but overall reporting levels are down. For Action Fraud this is marginal when compared to 2022 (1%), the same with UK Finance (1%), but for CIFAS (9%), and the crime survey overall (16%) the decrease is more marked. The interesting thing now will be to monitor this and see if and how this downward trend continues into 2024.

Fraud remains the most reported crime (an estimated 37% of all crime). There are no similar estimates for fraud against business.

Under reporting remains an issue

According to the Crime Survey for England and Wales, only 13% of frauds against individuals are reported to Action Fraud. This leaves 87% unreported and the reasons given by the NCA to explain this are due to the nature of fraud; individuals may be emotionally impacted and for businesses they may be reticent to come forward for fear of reputational impact.

How can we incentivise and encourage victims both communities to come forward? To do so will help them seek a remedy so deserved and help those working to tackle fraud to understand the methods being used, to inform improved counter measures and solutions to mitigate harm the caused.

An increased reporting of Cyber-enabled fraud

The STA reveals that most (89%) frauds reported to Action Fraud are now cyber-enabled, compared with 37% in 2012-2013. Technology increasingly is deployed by businesses to fight back against potential attacks, however, as we know criminals will always be looking to see how these very counter measures can be flipped to adverse effect also. The NCA recognise this and highlight the increased use of social engineering to circumvent controls, with data breaches remaining a key enabler of fraud. They go on to explain how through harvesting personal and financial information, criminals can commit frauds affecting individuals and across sectors.

Moving the money

The STA also shines the light on the use of money mules to facilitate the laundering of criminal proceeds. This can include the use of recruiting members of the public to allow their accounts to be used for criminal purpose. Economic downturn and financial pressures may provide the unfortunate tipping point for individuals to be persuaded to do this. Historically students have fallen victim to this not realising the full impact of the part they have played to further crime.

Emerging technology to commit fraud

Fraudsters are harnessing emerging technology including AI tools, with tools like generative AI making fraud easier to perpetrate and at pace for offenders. The NCA draw out specific examples of how criminals will adopt AI to improve their fraud efforts, explaining, “It will almost certainly be adopted by more criminals over time to increase the scale and sophistication of frauds. For example, to improve the linguistic complexity of email attacks, and using deepfakes and voice cloning to improve the chances of deceiving a victim into believing they are speaking with a colleague, friend, or family.”

Conclusions

Although fraud reporting is down compared to the previous year, it may be too soon to consider this in a positive light, given the upward trend for the past few years, and the fact that fraud remains the most prevalent crime type reported in England and Wales.

The NCA STA also indicates that criminals are continuing the use societal changes (increasing online world, economic downturn) as hooks to target individuals either as victims or as mules to help transfer criminal proceeds arising from fraud. Finally technological advancements remain critical in the fight back by industry and individuals alike. The more we can collectively do to encourage reporting by all victims, the more we can do to enhance counter measures to mitigate the harm caused.

A final thought from me: The NCA are clear in their report that AI will help the ease at which criminals will successfully defraud us, whatever sector we operate in. The time is now to come together and develop the solutions that will enhance our response and protect where possible our vital assets and resources.

What you can do if you are a victim of fraud

• If you are a victim to fraud, report it to Action Fraud in England, Wales or Northern Ireland. For Scotland report to Police Scotland by calling 101.
• If you have received a suspicious email, forward it to report@phishing.gov.uk to help stop criminal activity and prevent others from falling victim to scams.
• Always report suspicious text messages and scam call numbers to 7726. Your provider can find out where the text or call came from and block or ban the sender.
• If you see a suspicious advert report it to the Advertising Standards Authority.

Contact Clue to arrange a personal consultation with Laura, and learn how our intelligence and investigation software supports the detection and prevention of fraud and other economic crime types.

In the intricate world of human intelligence (HUMINT) management, understanding the subtle dynamics at play is crucial. Our recent webinar, “Unseen Moves: The Chessboard of Human Intelligence Source Management,” delved into the multifaceted strategies and challenges of managing intelligence sources effectively.

The expert panel—featuring Dr. Jordan Nunan, Senior Lecturer in Criminal Justice at the University of Northampton; Dr. Brian Chapell MBE, Head of Criminology and Criminal Justice at Brunel University, London; and Phil Suddick, Head of Sport and Safeguarding at Clue Software—offered valuable insights into the motivations of sources, the role of psychology, and the importance of record-keeping and compliance.

Rewatch the webinar here and read our key insights from the conversation below.

Understanding the motivations of sources

To effectively manage HUMINT sources, understanding their driving factors is crucial.

Dr. Jordan Nunan noted, “Motivation is nuanced and often has more than one driving factor… It’s not just about identifying or understanding what motivations exist for the individual. It’s about assessing how strong these motivations are in keeping them engaged.”

Recognising the complex and changing nature of an individual’s motivations allows handlers to tailor their interactions and build trust more effectively.

The “FIREPLACES” framework—Financial, Ideology, Revenge, Excitement, Protection, Lifestyle, Access, Coercion, Ego, and Sentence—encompasses the broad range of motivations that may influence informants.

Psychology and interpersonal skills matter

The speakers emphasised the crucial role of a handler’s psychology and interpersonal skills in gathering valuable intelligence. Dr. Jordan explained, “The psychology and behaviour of the handler are pivotal to the success of that relationship… it increases the likelihood of success.”

Handlers must build trust through competence, integrity, and benevolence. They should “leave their own ego and objectives” aside and approach interactions with an open, non-judgmental mindset to better understand the source’s perspective and motivations.

Managing stress and resisting the temptation to rush the process are key to maintaining long-term success. A “slow-burn approach” is often essential for building strong, reliable relationships.

Accountability and compliance

Dr. Brian highlighted the importance of organisations rigorously examining their “compliance” and “standard operating procedures” to ensure alignment with legislative and regulatory frameworks. For instance, the Regulation of Investigatory Powers Act (RIPA) in the UK outlines specific requirements for HUMINT use. Adhering to these legal standards ensures the accountability of decisions and the legitimacy of evidence.

Robust compliance and record-keeping are vital not only for legal and organisational consistency but also for protecting human sources from significant risks. As Dr. Brian pointed out, there have been instances where inadequate risk management has led to sources being compromised or even killed.

Balancing priorities and managing risk

The webinar emphasised the importance of balancing organisational responsibilities, source welfare, and public interest.

Dr. Brian explained, “It’s about being innovative in protecting the source while ensuring that your duty of care and Article Two responsibilities to prevent loss of life or serious injury are maintained. This requires considerable consideration and sometimes legal advice.”

Final thoughts

HUMINT management is inherently complex, involving a nuanced understanding of motivations, psychology, compliance, and risk.

The “FIREPLACES” framework highlights the diverse drivers behind informant behaviour, while the handler’s skills and adherence to legal standards are crucial for success. Balancing priorities and managing risks are essential to safeguarding both sources and the integrity of intelligence operations.

Continuous development and innovation in these areas are vital to adapting to evolving challenges and enhancing the effectiveness of HUMINT management.

Book a consultation to discuss Clue’s Confidential Reporting capabilities or, if you’re a Clue user, register for Clue Connect Live on November 12th and join a breakout session presented by Dr Jordan Nunan and Dr Brian Chapell, exploring how to effectively engage confidential sources.