The NCA recently published their latest Strategic Threat Assessment (STA) and Graeme Biggar, their Director General, confirmed that serious and organised crime (SOC) remains a high harm threat, more so than any other national security threat.

Biggar shared his expert view that the key to tackling SOC threats is to really understand them, and the STA helps practitioners to do just this.

Headlines of STA for Fraud?

So, what are the key takeaways from the 2023 STA. Crime figures for England and Wales (E&W) are down overall, but the harm of serious and organised crime remains high.

When considering the drivers for this, Biggar explains that organised crime is increasingly international (City of London Police recently suggested 70% of fraud now has an international element), criminals are more networked and joined up, and they are technologically adept.

To build on the drivers, it is clear that the societal shift to being online plays a part in the continued prevalence of fraud. So much of our lives from work, banking to social lives is managed online.

In terms of volume the STA identifies that fraud volumes are down overall in comparison to 2022, and for fraud the NCA credits the increased implementation of industry counter measures for this decline. Fraud, which the NCA consider through the lens of against individuals and against businesses, remains the most reported crime type in E&W, despite the noted decline.

• 11% of fraud victims were victimised more than once in year ending 2023
• 3.1 million fraud incidents reported during 2023
• 37% of all crime in England and Wales is fraud related

What do the figures tell us?

For England and Wales, there continues to be a high prevalence of fraud, but overall reporting levels are down. For Action Fraud this is marginal when compared to 2022 (1%), the same with UK Finance (1%), but for CIFAS (9%), and the crime survey overall (16%) the decrease is more marked. The interesting thing now will be to monitor this and see if and how this downward trend continues into 2024.

Fraud remains the most reported crime (an estimated 37% of all crime). There are no similar estimates for fraud against business.

Under reporting remains an issue

According to the Crime Survey for England and Wales, only 13% of frauds against individuals are reported to Action Fraud. This leaves 87% unreported and the reasons given by the NCA to explain this are due to the nature of fraud; individuals may be emotionally impacted and for businesses they may be reticent to come forward for fear of reputational impact.

How can we incentivise and encourage victims both communities to come forward? To do so will help them seek a remedy so deserved and help those working to tackle fraud to understand the methods being used, to inform improved counter measures and solutions to mitigate harm the caused.

An increased reporting of Cyber-enabled fraud

The STA reveals that most (89%) frauds reported to Action Fraud are now cyber-enabled, compared with 37% in 2012-2013. Technology increasingly is deployed by businesses to fight back against potential attacks, however, as we know criminals will always be looking to see how these very counter measures can be flipped to adverse effect also. The NCA recognise this and highlight the increased use of social engineering to circumvent controls, with data breaches remaining a key enabler of fraud. They go on to explain how through harvesting personal and financial information, criminals can commit frauds affecting individuals and across sectors.

Moving the money

The STA also shines the light on the use of money mules to facilitate the laundering of criminal proceeds. This can include the use of recruiting members of the public to allow their accounts to be used for criminal purpose. Economic downturn and financial pressures may provide the unfortunate tipping point for individuals to be persuaded to do this. Historically students have fallen victim to this not realising the full impact of the part they have played to further crime.

Emerging technology to commit fraud

Fraudsters are harnessing emerging technology including AI tools, with tools like generative AI making fraud easier to perpetrate and at pace for offenders. The NCA draw out specific examples of how criminals will adopt AI to improve their fraud efforts, explaining, “It will almost certainly be adopted by more criminals over time to increase the scale and sophistication of frauds. For example, to improve the linguistic complexity of email attacks, and using deepfakes and voice cloning to improve the chances of deceiving a victim into believing they are speaking with a colleague, friend, or family.”

Conclusions

Although fraud reporting is down compared to the previous year, it may be too soon to consider this in a positive light, given the upward trend for the past few years, and the fact that fraud remains the most prevalent crime type reported in England and Wales.

The NCA STA also indicates that criminals are continuing the use societal changes (increasing online world, economic downturn) as hooks to target individuals either as victims or as mules to help transfer criminal proceeds arising from fraud. Finally technological advancements remain critical in the fight back by industry and individuals alike. The more we can collectively do to encourage reporting by all victims, the more we can do to enhance counter measures to mitigate the harm caused.

A final thought from me: The NCA are clear in their report that AI will help the ease at which criminals will successfully defraud us, whatever sector we operate in. The time is now to come together and develop the solutions that will enhance our response and protect where possible our vital assets and resources.

What you can do if you are a victim of fraud

• If you are a victim to fraud, report it to Action Fraud in England, Wales or Northern Ireland. For Scotland report to Police Scotland by calling 101.
• If you have received a suspicious email, forward it to report@phishing.gov.uk to help stop criminal activity and prevent others from falling victim to scams.
• Always report suspicious text messages and scam call numbers to 7726. Your provider can find out where the text or call came from and block or ban the sender.
• If you see a suspicious advert report it to the Advertising Standards Authority.

Contact Clue to arrange a personal consultation with Laura, and learn how our intelligence and investigation software supports the detection and prevention of fraud and other economic crime types.

In the intricate world of human intelligence (HUMINT) management, understanding the subtle dynamics at play is crucial. Our recent webinar, “Unseen Moves: The Chessboard of Human Intelligence Source Management,” delved into the multifaceted strategies and challenges of managing intelligence sources effectively.

The expert panel—featuring Dr. Jordan Nunan, Senior Lecturer in Criminal Justice at the University of Northampton; Dr. Brian Chapell MBE, Head of Criminology and Criminal Justice at Brunel University, London; and Phil Suddick, Head of Sport and Safeguarding at Clue Software—offered valuable insights into the motivations of sources, the role of psychology, and the importance of record-keeping and compliance.

Rewatch the webinar here and read our key insights from the conversation below.

Understanding the motivations of sources

To effectively manage HUMINT sources, understanding their driving factors is crucial.

Dr. Jordan Nunan noted, “Motivation is nuanced and often has more than one driving factor… It’s not just about identifying or understanding what motivations exist for the individual. It’s about assessing how strong these motivations are in keeping them engaged.”

Recognising the complex and changing nature of an individual’s motivations allows handlers to tailor their interactions and build trust more effectively.

The “FIREPLACES” framework—Financial, Ideology, Revenge, Excitement, Protection, Lifestyle, Access, Coercion, Ego, and Sentence—encompasses the broad range of motivations that may influence informants.

Psychology and interpersonal skills matter

The speakers emphasised the crucial role of a handler’s psychology and interpersonal skills in gathering valuable intelligence. Dr. Jordan explained, “The psychology and behaviour of the handler are pivotal to the success of that relationship… it increases the likelihood of success.”

Handlers must build trust through competence, integrity, and benevolence. They should “leave their own ego and objectives” aside and approach interactions with an open, non-judgmental mindset to better understand the source’s perspective and motivations.

Managing stress and resisting the temptation to rush the process are key to maintaining long-term success. A “slow-burn approach” is often essential for building strong, reliable relationships.

Accountability and compliance

Dr. Brian highlighted the importance of organisations rigorously examining their “compliance” and “standard operating procedures” to ensure alignment with legislative and regulatory frameworks. For instance, the Regulation of Investigatory Powers Act (RIPA) in the UK outlines specific requirements for HUMINT use. Adhering to these legal standards ensures the accountability of decisions and the legitimacy of evidence.

Robust compliance and record-keeping are vital not only for legal and organisational consistency but also for protecting human sources from significant risks. As Dr. Brian pointed out, there have been instances where inadequate risk management has led to sources being compromised or even killed.

Balancing priorities and managing risk

The webinar emphasised the importance of balancing organisational responsibilities, source welfare, and public interest.

Dr. Brian explained, “It’s about being innovative in protecting the source while ensuring that your duty of care and Article Two responsibilities to prevent loss of life or serious injury are maintained. This requires considerable consideration and sometimes legal advice.”

Final thoughts

HUMINT management is inherently complex, involving a nuanced understanding of motivations, psychology, compliance, and risk.

The “FIREPLACES” framework highlights the diverse drivers behind informant behaviour, while the handler’s skills and adherence to legal standards are crucial for success. Balancing priorities and managing risks are essential to safeguarding both sources and the integrity of intelligence operations.

Continuous development and innovation in these areas are vital to adapting to evolving challenges and enhancing the effectiveness of HUMINT management.

Book a consultation to discuss Clue’s Confidential Reporting capabilities or, if you’re a Clue user, register for Clue Connect Live on November 12th and join a breakout session presented by Dr Jordan Nunan and Dr Brian Chapell, exploring how to effectively engage confidential sources. 

We are thrilled to announce Laura Eshelby as Clue’s new Head of Economic Crime. With a distinguished background in counter fraud, Laura has played a key role in shaping UK government policies to combat fraud and insider threats. 

Laura’s tactical and strategic expertise will be instrumental as we enhance our software, helping customers apply AI, streamline workflows, and maximise their impact in the fight against economic crime. She understands the critical need to align counter fraud strategies with the software that supports them, ensuring organisations can fully harness Clue’s capabilities.

A leading figure in counter fraud and economic crime

Laura’s arrival at Clue comes at a critical time when economic crime is more borderless and sophisticated than ever. With her extensive experience, Laura understands the complex challenges our customers face. As public sector organisations seek better ways to manage fraud risks, Laura is the ideal leader to guide them. Her international expertise, particularly with the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, will be key in ensuring our software is finely tuned to meet these evolving needs. 

Thomas Drohan, co-founder and Chief Commercial Officer commented: “Clue is the essential software that powers an organisation’s counter fraud operations. It is the foundation where workflows are built, proactive intelligence is generated, opportunities for prevention are identified, compliant investigations are conducted, and return on investment is realised. 

“For organisations to fully leverage Clue, it’s vital that their counter fraud policies and procedures are seamlessly integrated with the software. 

“With her experience in shaping the UK government’s counter fraud strategy, Laura recognised this need and has joined Clue to help organisations achieve this vision.”

Laura’s guidance will not only strengthen this support but also help our customers across various sectors instil best practices and enhance their fraud risk assessments. Her insights will ensure that Clue’s technology remains proactive and effective, especially as AI is being introduced into our software, enabling our customers to better manage and mitigate emerging threats. 

Expanding our economic crime community

Laura’s credibility will help us strengthen existing customer relationships and forge new ones, expanding our reach and impact. This strategic expansion will not only bring new customers into the Clue ecosystem but also enhance our ability to support and grow alongside them, ensuring that Clue continues to be a trusted partner in their fight against economic crime. 

Her appointment also marks a significant step forward in our product development strategy. Laura’s insights into the evolving fraud landscape, regulatory requirements, and the role of AI and technology will guide our roadmap, ensuring that Clue’s solutions remain at the forefront. Her experience in driving organisational change will be instrumental as we help our customers adopt and fully leverage our technologies, maximising their return on investment.

‘An opportunity to make change’

“I’ve spent my entire career seeking to better understand fraud and corruption and root it out through investigation,” said Laura on her appointment as Head of Economic Crime.

“Clue is an amazing opportunity to use my insight and continued passion to make cross-system change and reduce the harm caused by economic crime. The core Clue values and mission – with safeguarding and counter corruption at their heart – made this an ideal match for me.”  

Laura Eshelby’s expertise, strategic vision, and industry influence will be a tremendous asset to Clue and our customers. We are confident that her leadership will help Clue not only support but also better manage the complexities of economic crime prevention. Please join us in welcoming Laura to the Clue team. 

Learn more about Clue for economic crime.

Welcome to Clue Software’s Team Spotlight, where we showcase the exceptional individuals behind our leading intelligence and investigation management software.

Today, we talk to Senior Product Manager, Aditi Vyakarnam.

 

Hi Aditi, tell us a bit about your background?  

I started off working as a Systems Engineer for a Defence company doing everything from muddy testing in fields to then working on future capabilities for the MoD. This gave me a love of technology, and complex problem solving while working with customers. After that I moved to a Cyber Security tech company and entered the world of Product Management in a company going through scale up. This taught me a lot about the evolving threats within Cyber, and launching new Products in a very fast paced environment!  

 

What does your role at Clue entail and how does it benefit our customers? 

As a Product Manager, my role is focussed on being the bridge between customer needs and our product vision. I collaborate closely with cross-functional teams—customer success, engineering, marketing, and sales—to define and prioritize product features that deliver value. My day-to-day involves gathering and analysing customer feedback, researching market trends, and aligning the product strategy with the company’s goals. 

The ultimate benefit to customers is that they receive a product that not only solves their problems but also anticipates their future needs.  

 

What inspired you to pursue the career you have today?  

I’ve always loved problem solving – I was originally an Aerospace Engineer, and have always wanted to work on solving problems that are at the cutting edge of technology, and need you to stay one step ahead of the next challenge. That’s what drew me to work in Defence and Security, and coupled with Product Management it allows me to be creative and solve problems that can make a difference to society.  

 

What motivates you about working at Clue?  

Clue’s mission to prevent society from harm drew me to the company, and hearing about the incredible work that our customers are able to do as a result of our Product is very rewarding. Everyone in the company is passionate about the mission and it’s great to be somewhere where everyone is united in that goal.  

 

What’s your secret talent no one knows about?  

I am surprisingly good at pitch and putt golf despite really not enjoying Golf.  I worked in a golf course as my first job as a teenager, and used to practise behind the till when I had no customers.  

 

Tell me something about you that most people don’t know.  

I’ve done my open water diving qualification despite being terrified of the open ocean and absolutely loved it.  

  

In terms of successes, which accomplishments are you most proud of?  

Travelling around South East Asia and South America for a year and getting to do things like climbing Macchu Picchu, exploring off the beaten track places in Bolivia and Laos. Completing the three peaks challenge in 24 hours of torrential rain. Surviving a run in with a tarantula in the rainforest and most importantly convincing all my childhood friends to move to Bristol!  

 

Why do you enjoy working at Clue?  

As a product manager it’s great to be able to work in a business that has so much domain expertise, as well as being able to truly collaborate with our customers. I’ve also found that everyone is always very willing to help you learn and share information which has made joining really easy! 

 

If you’re interested in joining Aditi and the team at Clue, head over to our careers page to view current vacancies.